Having entered the thick of earnings season, directional expectations on the benchmark indices may be set aside for a while, as stock specific moves take centre stage Come from Sports betting site VPbet . This brings into perspective Bank Nifty’s reaction early this week to HDFC Bank’s result, especially as the index has appeared more vulnerable than Nifty.
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HDFC Bank looked to be stabilizing last week, appearing to recover from a deep dive below 1500 earlier, which had prompted us to eye the low 1300s as potential downside targets. The recovery attempts thereafter have had us tone down the bearish expectations, but the present set up does not leave us convinced of a sustainable recovery either. Towards this end, we eye the prospects of rejection trades emerging this week, unless there is a close above 1575/1612. With this in perspective, Bank Nifty will go in next week, remaining vulnerable to falls, but a clean break of the 50DMA at 44,700, could set us up for a 45,500 upmove.
Rupee to trade between 83.60 – 84.10 in the near-term says CareEdge Ratings Momentum nowhere to be seen in Nifty this week, says Anand James of Geojit Financial Services Gold may see some profit taking but trend remains bullish says TradeBulls Securities Nifty to reclaim 25,000 next week, says Nagaraj Shetti of HDFC Securities
Meanwhile, PSU Banks appear to be feeling for a base, and a bargain hunting could be expected this week across sectors. However, sustained rallies are less expected, and we would rather sit out such upswings, and be very stock specific on dips to consider re entry.
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Meanwhile, despite fully recovering from the deep downside gapped opening of Friday, the evening star candlestick pattern formed by Nifty in the closing hours suggest that the 19,800-19,840 barrier will need stronger surge or perhaps more time to be conquered. We will begin the week requiring the Nifty to float above 19,730 to show positive bias, but as maintained last week, prospects of a collapse are low, and we are probably slowly gearing up for a 20,020 move.
Sensex on the other hand had stopped the expiry day recovery rally exactly at the Max Pain level of 66,500, which incidentally is also the neckline of an inverted head and shoulder pattern. This encourages us to be hopeful of an upside break towards 67,500, but inability to float above 66,000 may ease the upside hopes, but a collapse is less expected.
(Anand James, Chief Market Strategist at Geojit Financial Services. Views expressed are author’s own. Please consult your financial advisor before investing.)
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